"I need a 4 to hit? I'm not going to risk missing - boost!"
"Dice minus 8 on damage, and your model has 3 boxes left? I'm feeling lucky, punk."
"My power is equal to the armor of your knocked-down warjack? Let's boost like there's no tomorrow!"
The math guys are undoubtedly shaking their heads in shame right now, because I was throwing statistics out the window in favor of gut feeling, as though my senses are somehow so in tune with the universe that I can sense when I will or won't roll against averages. There was no rhyme or reason to my decisions to boost, I just went with what felt right and assumed that there was no right or wrong choice.
So what happened to break me of that? I read an article about that filthy subject called math, and it totally changed how I looked at gaming. The article was written by TMage from Muse on Minis, and it basically explored the math behind when you should or shouldn't boost. Before reading it I treated the game like a chaotic mess of unimaginable results. I mean realistically, the odds of me rolling two 6s is the same as rolling two 1s, so how could math ever be useful?
What I'd forgotten is that dice aren't just valueless images. If every side of a die was the same value, then I'd have equal chances to roll any combination. But when I realized that I needed to factor in the value of the dice, I realized that I was wrong when I told my math teacher I'd never use math in real life.
There are two values that every Warmachine player should remember, even if you never do anything more with dice math: 7 and -4.
Statistically speaking, the average value of rolling a die is 3.5. Thus the average roll of 2d6 is 7, and that's a good baseline for remember when to boost an attack. If you need an 8 or greater to hit, it's important to boost. If you're hitting at 6 or less, save your resources for boosting damage or buying more attacks.
Damage is treated in a similar manner. If you're subtracting 4 or more from your damage roll, boost it to roll 3d6. If you're subtracting 3 or less from your damage rolls, save your resources for buying more attacks.
7 to hit, -4 on the damage roll. That's your basic guide to boosting.
Now of course, that comes with a lot of caveats, and that's when I lose control of my math. Warmachine isn't based on averages. There are some targets that you attack because there's nothing else to do. There are others that must die. Sometimes you could be rolling pure dice on the damage roll, but you needed a 14 3d6 to even hit them, and you doubt you'll be able to roll that again.
That's where players can go one of two ways. Some players can juggle all the math explained in the linked article. Those are the guys who will appreciate these two brilliant tables from an article on probabilities from SteamForged.com
Of course dice math isn't just a solid boost/no-boost scenario. You need to weigh percentages and decide whether you're likely to hit with several attacks so that you can sustain your damage output, or if you should secure the attack by boosting it, then boosting the damage if you get through. There are people who can look at these tables, internalize them, and use them to drastically improve their game by leaving little to gut reactions.
Those people are monsters, but they're also the most likely to be top-tier players. The rest of us can only remember 7 and -4, and we have to leave the rest of up to that fickle thing called instinct.
I have to look at a fight I'm about to pick and figure out where I fall on the 7 / -4 plan. If I'm running averages all the way through, it's a piece of cake. Of course I'm always tipped one way or the other, either they're easy to hit but hard to kill, or vice versa. In that case I have to let the importance of the fight give weight to my decision. Do I need this thing to happen? Then I'll make sure I hit and leave little doubt about doing damage. Can I live with missing an attack or two? Then I'll buy attacks and maybe boost damage so that I can accomplish something.
And that is when I hate 7s to hit. It's such a troubling number because I trust that I'll hit on 6s, and I trust that I'll miss on 8s. But 7s feel like they're up in the air, and falling on the wrong side of the odds can mess me up because if I'd just boosted, things would have worked out!
I feel like I have good control of knowing when to boost damage though. Boosting the attack is so hard because if that misses, nothing happens. But with damage, all that madness is behind you and you just have to decide how much oomph you want. I've seen people boost damage on an easy attack and average damage, dealing 1-2 extra damage and leaving them down one attack.
I don't like doing that because despite statistics, there's always a chance that buying that extra attack could cause my dice to catch fire and let me deliver a debilitating damage roll. Now instead of boosting an easy damage roll and dealing 3 or 4 more damage, I use that to buy the extra attack and deal 6-9 more damage. It doesn't always happen, but I know that it's possible and I'm always willing to let my gut guide me a little bit if it means I can throw my hands up in triumph because a gamble paid off.
People will use as much or as little math as they want. I'm awful with numbers, so I doubt I'll ever go beyond my two numbers. However, I really do think it's important for people to at least remember those numbers if they want to step up their game. Throwing dice and not trying to increase the odds of success can be a lot of fun because it's so random and dynamic, but at a certain point I realized it was limiting my ability to use skill in a game because I left too much up to chance. By learning to harness just a little bit of math, I saw my success rate rise. Not enough to overcome my bad strategies and funky lists, but it was a start in the right direction!
I hope this wasn't too much of a bore. I hate math, but it does have its uses. If this is your first time seeing this, I'd encourage you to use 7 and -4 in your next few games and see if you feel a bit more in control. And if you do, I'd love to hear your thoughts on it!
See you tomorrow!
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